The Variable Change at Play Influencing the Ecosystem of the Arctic

As sea ice continues to melt at historic rates within the Arctic Circle, Orcas have begun to explore the expanding waters of the Arctic Ocean. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the minimum amount of yearly sea ice has dropped below five million square kilometers every year since 2007 with the exceptions of 2009, 2013, and 2014. The NSIDC’s data shows that the month of September in 2024 ranks sixth lowest compared to the sea ice volume of forty-five previous Septembers on record. The Beaufort Sea off the northern coast of Alaska and northwestern Canada has seen noticeably low levels of sea ice, as has the Kara Sea east of the Barents Sea and the East Siberian Sea west of Wrangel Island.

The warming waters of the Arctic Ocean have become a new playground for Orcas (Killer Whales) and offer brand new access to prey that was previously protected by the Arctic sea ice. The World Wildlife Fund focuses on the conservation of endangered species and has found that shrinking sea ice has put Bowhead Whales on the menu for Orcas off the Arctic coast of Alaska. Bowhead Whales have the unique ability to create breathing holes in the ice for themselves unlike Orcas. However, as the icy fortress for Bowhead Whales melts at historic rates, the acoustics of their predators have become increasingly present where they previously were not.

The potential rise in predation by Orcas against Arctic Ocean species like the Bowhead Whale could cause concern for more than just whale population numbers. Brynn Kimber writes that the impacts of melting sea ice are being felt by both ecosystems and communities alike. Many indigenous communities in Alaska are dependent upon hunting for their survival and may come into competition for Bowhead Whales as a result of melting sea ice. Beluga Whales and seals are two more marine mammals that are now potentially under threat from Orcas and could open the door to even more disruption within the Arctic food chain. Due to the frigid temperatures of the Arctic, there are fewer species living there, and as a result, the Arctic’s ecosystem is more fragile when variable change occurs. For example, if seals become targeted by new predatory species, the already existing predators of seals would likely suffer as a result of seals being hunted at a more significant rate.

Dr. Stephanie Penk is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Montana and has been working to develop mathematical models in ecology to help understand the amount of energy polar bears require to sustain themselves. In her article "Math and Polar Bears", she writes that she can “determine the relationship between a bear’s age, sex, and size and their resulting energy use”. Her models are based on data from polar bears in zoos as well as the wild polar bears roaming Hudson Bay in Canada. She goes further in her work to utilize sea ice measurements in her models to predict “the persistence of polar bear subpopulations under different carbon emission scenarios”. This data can then be used to make reliable predictions amidst the rapidly changing temperatures of the Arctic.

The effects of a warming Arctic are becoming more significant and consequential than ever before. Thankfully, measures are being taken in the scientific community to develop methods to preserve the Arctic landscape while it changes before our eyes. While a warming Arctic is an inconvenience to the animals and people that live there, it must be remembered that a warming Arctic provides consequences for life below the Arctic Circle as well. In a world where animals become explorers of new accessible spaces, people do so as well. This introduces competing international interests and competitive geopolitical implications that have the potential to either preserve or destroy the fragile ecosystem of the Arctic.